This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some solid contests considering that is a free card and I look forward to chasing the GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They have a Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 admissions that match. I won my very first chair into it a couple weeks ago and I will attempt to get my 2nd chair this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw a small number of entries at that $25k decoration, and then I will likely take a few shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good quantity of drama into cash games.
With that said, let us get into a few plays I like this week Together with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There actually aren’t any money game guards this week for me personally but I went with Yana because I fully expect this battle to go all 3 rounds so I enjoy the ground she brings to the table. I also think she wins the fight and I believe she will be the fighter going for takedowns. I really don’t know how large her ceiling is in cash games it doesn’t really matter a lot since we don’t have to strike 1st place in a double-up. I would anticipate about 10x from Yana at a decision win and I will take that all day in my money games.
GPP drama of the week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka fights often score highly as there are a lot of scrambles and all the grappling advances really accumulate. I anticipate this to be a very fun fight, but it should be Smolka that is the one going for the takedowns. I am always trying to find no less than 10x in my fighters and also at $8.3k I’d be shocked if Smolka did not get that with a triumph. The lowest he has ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he has scored 162 vs Nguyen and he’s got a 61-point loss to Elliott that’s more DK points than Schnell’s triumph over Beltran. I love Smolka as a GPP drama here and when he wins I would expect near 100 DK points.
Play of this week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
To get a struggle I hope to stay standing, I’ve quite a bit of interest in this fight. I believe it’s going to be an action-packed struggle and I think someone gets pumped out. This is also the mid-range struggle of this week, so that I think a KO from either guy would have a good chance to set them on the optimal lineup. I enjoy it even more because I am picking the underdog to acquire the knockout and I anticipate Millender to function as higher owned fighter. I will have this fight in more than half my lineups, but I shall most likely have at least double the ownership on dos Santos over Millender. I think it’s a much better GPP fight than it’s for money games, but I think dos Santos is currently in play for cash since he is an underdog and that I have him winning. I don’t feel confident in many underdogs this week, but I will have a fantastic amount of exposure to dos Santos.
Fade of this week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will need a finish at the wages and that I really don’t see that occurring. When he wins a clear 30-27 decision, he then likely scores mid 70’s and at his price tag that will not win anyone a GPP. I don’t believe he goes for takedowns in this matchup and I believe he uses his wrestling to help keep the fight standing. Even if he does move for takedowns then I don’t see him filing Moraes. So, it has to be a KO out of him to cover off that wages and I am not inclined to take that risk with my money. That is why he’s my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 61-37 to get +209.69 (+$20,969) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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